{"id":16820,"date":"2026-04-23T16:00:41","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T14:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forbes.be\/fr\/?p=16820"},"modified":"2026-04-23T17:32:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T15:32:13","slug":"populisme-impact-marches-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forbes.be\/fr\/populisme-impact-marches-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi le renouveau de l\u2019Europe cr\u00e9e de la valeur"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le populisme est d\u00e9sormais bien implant\u00e9 dans le paysage politique mondial, nourri par les frustrations li\u00e9es aux in\u00e9galit\u00e9s, \u00e0 la stagnation de la mobilit\u00e9 sociale et \u00e0 l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 des partis traditionnels \u00e0 s\u2019adapter aux nouvelles r\u00e9alit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si les r\u00e9gimes populistes ont tendance \u00e0 adopter des politiques qui augmentent les risques \u00e0 long terme \u2013\u00a0croissance ralentie, inflation en hausse et volatilit\u00e9\u00a0\u2013, ils peuvent aussi, \u00e0 court terme, soutenir la demande, ouvrir la voie \u00e0 des r\u00e9formes n\u00e9cessaires de longue date et cr\u00e9er des opportunit\u00e9s d\u2019investissement cibl\u00e9es dans des secteurs subventionn\u00e9s ou jug\u00e9s strat\u00e9giques.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c9volution du nombre de gouvernements populistes<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Populist Leaders and the Economy\u00a0\u00bb, Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick et Christoph Trebesch, 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

En ce qui concerne les march\u00e9s obligataires, les r\u00e9gimes populistes ont souvent recours \u00e0 une politique mon\u00e9taire accommodante pour stimuler la croissance et satisfaire des aspirations sociales, ce qui se traduit par une baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 court terme. De telles interventions s\u2019accompagnent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d\u2019une hausse des taux obligataires \u00e0 long terme, illustrant les craintes accrues des investisseurs quant \u00e0 la viabilit\u00e9 des finances publiques, au risque d\u2019inflation et au potentiel recours \u00e0 la politique mon\u00e9taire pour financer le d\u00e9ficit public.<\/span><\/p>\n

On assiste alors \u00e0 une pentification de la courbe des taux \u2013\u00a0un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qui, dans un r\u00e9gime politique aux agissements plus impr\u00e9visibles, traduit une \u00e9volution des anticipations de la prime de risque associ\u00e9e \u00e0 la d\u00e9tention de dette publique, et non un simple un ajustement technique.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pour ce qui concerne les march\u00e9s actions, le d\u00e9ploiement de mesures populistes (augmentation des droits de douane, politique budg\u00e9taire expansionniste et r\u00e9pression financi\u00e8re) fait des gagnants, mais aussi des perdants sur les march\u00e9s, en particulier dans les cas o\u00f9 l\u2019interventionnisme de l\u2019\u00c9tat concerne des secteurs d\u2019activit\u00e9 strat\u00e9giques.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, par exemple, les \u00e9missions de \u00ab\u00a0golden shares\u00a0\u00bb, les prises de participation priv\u00e9es dans le capital de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s cot\u00e9es ou encore les revirements politiques concernant les contr\u00f4les \u00e0 l\u2019exportation de puces\u00a0d\u2019IA illustrent la mani\u00e8re dont les ambitions politiques peuvent infl\u00e9chir l\u2019allocation de capital et la visibilit\u00e9 sur les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. Les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques, notamment les restrictions sur les importations chinoises de puces d\u2019IA et les menaces d\u2019escalade avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, alimentent encore plus l\u2019incertitude. En parall\u00e8le, les coupes budg\u00e9taires annonc\u00e9es concernant les principales agences d\u2019innovation risquent de fragiliser les facteurs de soutien de la croissance \u00e0 long terme, ce qui pourrait d\u00e9grader les valorisations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pour les investisseurs, il peut \u00eatre judicieux d\u2019investir de mani\u00e8re s\u00e9lective, en identifiant les forces sous-jacentes de ces mouvements, lesquels devraient continuer \u00e0 fa\u00e7onner les politiques publiques. Une approche d\u2019investissement disciplin\u00e9e et calibr\u00e9e selon le secteur et l\u2019horizon temporel, bas\u00e9e sur l\u2019\u00e9valuation de la robustesse des institutions et de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 des r\u00e9formes, offre les meilleures chances de saisir les opportunit\u00e9s, tout en aidant \u00e0 se pr\u00e9munir contre les risques structurels accompagnant une gouvernance populiste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cette analyse fait partie d\u2019une \u00e9tude plus large sur l\u2019impact de la r\u00e9organisation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale sur les opportunit\u00e9s d\u2019investissement.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cet article a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9dig\u00e9 en \u00e9troite collaboration avec Capital Group<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mont\u00e9e du populisme : quel impact sur les march\u00e9s ?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":16822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,16,31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-16820","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brandvoice","8":"category-finance","9":"category-politique"},"acf":[],"_yoast_wpseo_title":null,"_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Le populisme est d\u00e9sormais bien implant\u00e9 dans le paysage politique mondial, nourri par les frustrations li\u00e9es aux in\u00e9galit\u00e9s, \u00e0 la stagnation de la mobilit\u00e9 sociale et \u00e0 l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 des partis traditionnels \u00e0 s\u2019adapter aux nouvelles r\u00e9alit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques.","auteur_traducteur":"","yoast_head":"\nPourquoi le renouveau de l\u2019Europe 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